The (Structural) Gravity of Epidemics

Author(s)
Alejandro Cunat, Robert Zymek
Abstract

Epidemiological models assume gravity-like interactions of individuals across space without microfoundations. We combine a simple epidemiological framework with a dynamic model of individual location choice. The model predicts that flows of people across space obey a structural gravity equation. By means of an application to data from Great Britain we show that our structural-gravity framework: provides a rationale for quarantines; offers a clear mapping from observed geography to the spread of a disease; and makes it possible to evaluate the welfare impact of (expected and unexpected) mobility restrictions in the face of a deadly epidemic.

Organisation(s)
Department of Economics
External organisation(s)
University of Edinburgh
Journal
European Economic Review
Volume
144
ISSN
0014-2921
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104082
Publication date
05-2022
Peer reviewed
Yes
Austrian Fields of Science 2012
502053 Economics
Keywords
ASJC Scopus subject areas
Economics and Econometrics, Finance
Portal url
https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/en/publications/af43c3d2-af96-4aaa-a2f3-2f71f0fa75d1